This study explored the validity of person judgements by targets and their acquaintances (‘informants’) in longitudinally predicting a broad range of psychologically meaningful life experiences. Judgements were gathered from four sources (targets, N = 189; and three types of informants, N = 1352), and their relative predictive validity was compared for three types of judgement: direct predictions of future life experiences (e.g. number of new friendships), broad (Big Five) domains (e.g. extraversion), and narrower personality nuances (e.g. sociable). Approximately 1 year later, the targets' actual life experiences were retrospectively assessed by the targets, and by informants nominated by the targets (TNI). Overall, we found evidence for predictive validity across predictor sources and types. Direct predictions by targets were by far the most valid, followed by TNI. Personality‐based predictions by targets and TNI had substantial but lower validity. Domain‐based predictions were less valid than nuance‐based predictions. Overall, informants with lower ‘liking’ and ‘knowing’ towards targets made less valid predictions. Person‐centred multilevel analyses showed both considerable validity of direct predictions (which increased with knowing) and positivity bias (which increased with liking). Taken together, given the relatively high methodological rigour of the study, these results provide an especially realistic picture of the rather moderate predictive power of person judgements regarding future life experiences and corroborate the common practice of obtaining such judgements from targets and their close acquaintances. © 2020 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology

中文翻译：

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谁知道明年您会怎样？不同感知者对未来生活经验的直接和基于个性的预测的有效性

这项研究探讨了在纵向预测范围广泛的具有心理意义的生活经历中，由目标及其相识者（“信息提供者”）做出的人判断的有效性。判决是从四个来源收集的（目标，N  = 189；三种类型的举报人，N = 1352），并比较了三种判断类型的相对预测效度：对未来生活经历的直接预测（例如，新友谊的数量），广泛的（五大）领域（例如，外向性）和较窄的人格差异（例如，社交性） 。大约一年后，目标和目标指定的线人对目标的实际生活经历进行了回顾性评估。总体而言，我们发现了各种预测变量来源和类型的预测有效性的证据。到目前为止，目标的直接预测是最有效的，其次是TNI。目标和TNI基于人格的预测具有实质性但较低的有效性。基于域的预测不如基于细微差别的预测有效。总体而言，对目标的“喜好”和“了解”程度较低的线人做出的有效预测较差。以人为中心的多层次分析表明，直接预测的有效性（随着了解而增加）和积极性偏差（随着喜好而增加）。综上所述，鉴于研究的方法学要求较高，因此这些结果为人们对未来生活经验的判断具有相当适度的预测能力提供了特别现实的描述，并佐证了从目标及其亲密朋友那里获得此类判断的普遍做法。©2020作者。John Wiley＆Sons Ltd代表欧洲人格心理学协会出版的《欧洲人格杂志》鉴于这项研究的方法学要求较高，这些结果为人们对未来生活经验的判断具有相当适度的预测能力提供了特别现实的描述，并证实了从目标及其亲密朋友那里获得这种判断的普遍做法。©2020作者。John Wiley＆Sons Ltd代表欧洲人格心理学协会出版的《欧洲人格杂志》鉴于这项研究的方法学要求较高，这些结果为人们对未来生活经验的判断具有相当适度的预测能力提供了特别现实的描述，并证实了从目标及其亲密朋友那里获得这种判断的普遍做法。©2020作者。John Wiley＆Sons Ltd代表欧洲人格心理学协会出版的《欧洲人格杂志》