Abstract

We study how long-lived rational agents learn from repeatedly observing a private signal and each others’ actions. With normal signals, a group of any size learns more slowly than just four agents who directly observe each others’ private signals in each period. Similar results apply to general signal structures. We identify rational groupthink—in which agents ignore their private signals and choose the same action for long periods of time—as the cause of this failure of information aggregation.

中文翻译：

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Rational Groupthink *

摘要

我们研究了长期存在的理性主体如何通过反复观察一个私人信号以及彼此的行为来学习。在正常信号下，任何规模的人比在每个时期直接观察彼此私人信号的四个特工学习得慢得多。类似的结果适用于一般信号结构。我们确定了理性的集体思维方式，即代理人忽略其私人信号并长时间选择相同的动作，这是信息聚合失败的原因。