Abstract

Based on a survey (7–13 April 2020) we evaluate the reaction of Swiss firms towards the COVID-19 crisis. Firms show little pro-active reactions towards the crisis, but decrease their business activities. The firms in the survey report that the decline in foreign demand is the single most important reason for their deteriorating business situation. Firms that faced a more difficult business situation before the crisis are affected more severely during the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the impact of the Swiss federal loan program (Bundeshilfe) on the business activities. To this end, we develop a stylized theoretical model of financially constrained heterogeneous firms. We find that policy makers face a trade-off between immediate higher unemployment rates and long-term higher public spending. The former arises from a combination of a too strong economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (demand drop) and too low levels of loans provided. Nevertheless, providing (too) high levels of loans to firms creates zombie firms that are going to default in the future leading to an increase in public spending. (JEL codes: D22, D25, D84, and G33)

中文翻译：

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COVID-19：担保贷款和僵尸公司

 抽象的

根据一项调查（2020 年 4 月 7 日至 13 日），我们评估了瑞士企业对 COVID-19 危机的反应。企业对危机没有表现出积极的反应，而是减少了业务活动。参与调查的企业报告称，外国需求下降是其经营状况恶化的最重要原因。危机前经营状况较为困难的企业在危机期间受到的影响更为严重。此外，我们还调查了瑞士联邦贷款计划（Bundeshilfe）对商业活动的影响。为此，我们开发了一个财务受限的异质企业的程式化理论模型。我们发现，政策制定者面临着当前较高的失业率和长期较高的公共支出之间的权衡。前者是由于 COVID-19 封锁（需求下降）造成的经济影响过大和所提供的贷款水平过低共同造成的。然而，向企业提供（过高）贷款会产生僵尸企业，这些企业将来会违约，从而导致公共支出增加。 （JEL 代码：D22、D25、D84 和 G33）