Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks’ aggregate credit risk, revealing governments’ ability to curb banks’ losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or with macroeconomic stabilization policies. Deteriorating deficits are associated with increasing financial distress of the banking sector and higher levels of loan-loss provisions. The effect is more pronounced for banks with a strong aversion to underprovisioning and is robust to a battery of tests and to the identification of fiscal shocks using military-spending data. This association represents an additional source of negative comovement between provisions and economic conditions, with implications for financial stability.

中文翻译：

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财政赤字、银行信用风险和贷款损失准备金

财政赤字是银行总信用风险的一个重要变量，它揭示了政府通过直接注入现金或宏观经济稳定政策来遏制银行在糟糕状态下损失的能力。不断恶化的赤字与银行业财务困境的加剧和更高水平的贷款损失准备金有关。对于强烈厌恶拨备不足的银行，这种影响更为明显，并且对一系列测试和使用军费支出数据识别财政冲击具有稳健性。这种关联代表了拨备和经济状况之间负联动的另一个来源，对金融稳定产生了影响。