Abstract

The aim of this paper is to argue that one of the impacts of the 2008 international financial crisis and the European crisis in the Brazilian economy was in the investment rate. Our interpretation is that the impact of the international crises made the balance sheet of non-financial firms more fragile, mainly the industrial firms, and the economic measures implemented to sustain profit margins from 2011 onwards were not enough to counterbalance the deceleration in the aggregate demand and the rise in financial costs. To investigate the evolution of the financial fragility of industrial firms , following Minsky’s financial fragility hypothesis , we propose an econometric model using a cointegration panel. We develop the analysis in two stages using instrumental variables to estimate the rate of investment and the share of financial receipts in total receipts. Among the instrumental variables, the share of wages in value-added, the domestic interest rate, the exchange rate, and the world income were statistically significant. We conclude that the deterioration of the capacity of industrial firms to generate enough internal funds to face debt commitments can be explained by the deceleration of the aggregate demand, expressed by investment rate and the deceleration of the world income, and the increase in the weight of the wage share in total value-added.

摘要

本文的目的是论证 2008 年国际金融危机和欧洲危机对巴西经济的影响之一是投资率。我们的解读是，国际危机的影响使非金融企业（主要是工业企业）的资产负债表更加脆弱，2011 年以来为维持利润率而实施的经济措施不足以抵消总需求的减速。以及财务成本的上升。为了研究工业企业金融脆弱性的演变，遵循明斯基的金融脆弱性假设，我们提出了一个使用协整面板的计量经济学模型。我们分两个阶段进行分析，使用工具变量来估计投资率和财政收入在总收入中的份额。在工具变量中，工资在增加值中的份额、国内利率、汇率和世界收入在统计上是显着的。我们得出结论，工业企业产生足够内部资金以应对债务承诺的能力恶化可以用总需求的减速来解释，以投资率和世界收入的减速表示，以及权重的增加。总增加值中的工资份额。