Abstract

Since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, and despite the current low unemployment rate, wage growth in the United States has been substantially slower than in previous recoveries. This paper argues that the cost of job loss—the one year income loss associated with job loss—and the long-term share of unemployment can account for slow wage growth relative to other labor market variables. Using a wage-Phillips curve for three sample periods, empirical evidence suggests that the cost of job loss and the long-term share of unemployment better explain and forecast wage growth in the United States, particularly during the recovery from the Great Recession relative to conventional measures. This finding better highlights and captures deeper trends in the U.S. labor market, specifically the declining bargaining power of labor.

摘要

自 2009 年 6 月大衰退结束以来，尽管目前失业率很低，但美国的工资增长已大大低于之前的复苏。本文认为，失业成本（与失业相关的一年收入损失）和长期失业份额可以解释相对于其他劳动力市场变量的工资增长缓慢。使用三个样本时期的工资菲利普斯曲线，经验证据表明，失业成本和失业的长期份额可以更好地解释和预测美国的工资增长，特别是在大萧条复苏期间相对于传统措施。这一发现更好地突出并捕捉到了美国劳动力市场更深层次的趋势，特别是劳动力议价能力的下降。