Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the nature of money supply in the CEMAC area. Specifically, we aim at testing the post-Keynesian endogenous money hypothesis which asserts that money supply is demand-determined and not in the control of the central bank. Contrary to the usual Granger causality tests performed in most studies related to the post-Keynesian theory, we use in this paper a direct test of the endogeneity of money. Using quarterly data from 1990 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence on endogenous money supply in the CEMAC area. Moreover, the structuralist and liquidity preference views are the principal transmission channels of money supply endogeneity in this monetary union. Monetary authorities should consequently shift their policy from the apparent monetary targeting to interest rate targeting, and subsequently to inflation targeting. Moreover, the banking system must undergo profound structural changes.

摘要

本研究的目的是评估 CEMAC 地区货币供应的性质。具体来说，我们旨在检验后凯恩斯主义的内生货币假说，该假说断言货币供应是由需求决定的，不受中央银行的控制。与大多数与后凯恩斯理论相关的研究中通常进行的格兰杰因果检验相反，我们在本文中使用了对货币内生性的直接检验。使用 1990 年至 2017 年的季度数据，我们提供了 CEMAC 地区内生货币供应量的经验证据。此外，结构主义和流动性偏好观点是该货币联盟货币供应内生性的主要传导渠道。因此，货币当局应将其政策从明显的货币目标转向利率目标，以及随后的通胀目标。此外，银行体系必须经历深刻的结构性变革。