Abstract

We develop a tractable model in which asset prices are driven by the epidemic spread of certain investment ideas. Once an idea “goes viral,” equilibrium prices exhibit a pattern of boom and bust. In turn, we identify a timeline of symptoms, which indicate whether a boom is in its early or later stages. Moreover, we find that prices start to decline while the number of infected agents, who buy the asset, is still rising. The presence of rational agents, who correctly anticipate the cycle, accelerates booms, lowers peak prices and tends to produce broad, drawn-out, market tops.

中文翻译：

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思想病毒和资产价格

摘要

我们开发了一个易于处理的模型，其中资产价格由某些投资理念的流行传播驱动。一旦一个想法“传播开来”，均衡价格就会呈现出繁荣和萧条的模式。反过来，我们确定了症状的时间表，这表明繁荣是处于早期还是后期。此外，我们发现价格开始下跌，而购买资产的受感染代理人数量仍在增加。正确预测周期的理性代理人的存在加速了繁荣，降低了峰值价格，并倾向于产生广泛的、长期的市场顶部。