ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the impacts of decarbonisation in three energy-intensive sectors/institutions (electricity generation, road transport, and household consumption) on four economic and environmental variables (value added, employment, energy consumption, and emissions). In our basic scenario, the EU is supposed to complete the decarbonisation of the selected sectors in 30 years, whereas in the rest of the world these sectors will be 30% decarbonised. We hypothesise that emissions and employment will fall once renewable sources of energy replace fossil fuels. Yet, in the meanwhile, massive investments are needed to build the required infrastructure. To compute the full impact, we apply a multiplier-accelerator model to a global multiregional hybrid input–output table derived from EXIOBASE3. In the EU, such a decarbonisation reduces yearly energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and employment by 22%, 19%, and 4%, respectively. Thus, additional measures are necessary to avoid global warming and absorb unemployment.

摘要

本文分析了三个能源密集型部门/机构（发电，道路运输和家庭消费）中的脱碳对四个经济和环境变量（增值，就业，能源消耗和排放）的影响。在我们的基本情景中，欧盟应该在30年内完成选定部门的脱碳，而在世界其他地区，这些部门将脱碳30％。我们假设一旦可再生能源替代化石燃料，排放和就业将下降。然而，与此同时，需要大量投资来构建所需的基础架构。为了计算全部影响，我们将乘数-加速器模型应用于从EXIOBASE3派生的全局多区域混合输入-输出表。在欧盟，₂排放量，就业人数分别减少22％，19％和4％。因此，有必要采取其他措施来避免全球变暖和吸收失业。