ABSTRACT

Although much effort has been taken to investigate probation failure and associated factors, less attention has been given to the stability and change in life events during the probation period that could influence probation violations, including re-arrest. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and survival analyses, the current study aimed to explore the likelihood of probation failure by re-arrest and survival time to re-arrest among those with stable and changing statuses of various social bonds, including marriage/cohabitation and employment. The results suggested that those experiencing stability in these life domains when entering probation initially did not seem to have the best chance of survival. Rather, it was change in these statuses that made a difference. Based on postestimation survival curves, those divorced/separated and unemployed experienced the quickest time to failure.

摘要

尽管已经付出了很多努力来调查缓刑失败和相关因素，但很少关注缓刑期间可能影响缓刑违规的生活事件的稳定性和变化，包括重新逮捕。利用 1997 年全国青年纵向调查的数据和生存分析，本研究旨在探讨在各种社会纽带（包括婚姻）状况稳定和不断变化的人中，因再逮捕而缓刑失败的可能性和再逮捕的生存时间/同居和就业。结果表明，那些在进入缓刑期时在这些生活领域经历稳定的人似乎没有最好的生存机会。相反，正是这些状态的变化产生了影响。基于后估计生存曲线，