ABSTRACT

Experiencing mixed emotions, a combination of two oppositely-valenced emotions, has been shown to reduce bias in decision making and improve the accuracy of judgements made. However, most previous research has been limited to laboratory-based experiments. In this pre-registered study, we looked at mixed emotions and judgements in the naturalistic context of watching sport during the FIFA world cup. N = 80 participants reported on mixed emotions before and after each England game during the World Cup, and made score predictions for each game, collecting a total of k = 480 observations. We used a lagged-effect design and multilevel modelling to analyse the data. We found that participants who felt more mixed emotions at the end of a match made significantly more likely score predictions in the following match, indicating that experiencing stronger mixed emotions subsequently predicted more reasonable judgements. This result was supported even after controlling for a number of affective, attitudinal, and socio-demographic variables. This provides evidence that naturally occurring mixed emotions are related to improved real-world judgements. The evidence is discussed through the lens of fantasy realisation theory, and the importance of feeling mixed during decisions involving puzzling or uncertain outcomes is emphasised.

摘要

体验混合情绪，即两种相反价情绪的组合，已被证明可以减少决策中的偏见并提高做出判断的准确性。然而，大多数先前的研究仅限于基于实验室的实验。在这项预先注册的研究中，我们研究了在 FIFA 世界杯期间观看体育比赛的自然背景下的复杂情绪和判断。N =  80 名参与者报告了世界杯期间每场英格兰比赛前后的复杂情绪，并对每场比赛进行了比分预测，共收集了k = 480 个观察值。我们使用滞后效应设计和多级建模来分析数据。我们发现在比赛结束时感受到更多复杂情绪的参与者在接下来的比赛中做出更可能的分数预测，这表明经历更强烈的混合情绪随后预测了更合理的判断。即使在控制了许多情感、态度和社会人口变量之后，这一结果也得到了支持。这提供了证据表明，自然发生的混合情绪与改善的现实世界判断有关。通过幻想实现理论的视角讨论了证据，并强调了在涉及令人费解或不确定结果的决策中感到复杂的重要性。