We analyze in how far market perceptions of actual financial integration affect EU integration support at the country level. As indicators of realized states of integration in financial markets we rely upon yield differentials of long-term government debt. To identify particular situations that could undermine the integration process, we suggest a new measure of EU integration risks that fulfills a number of properties which are desirable to ensure its informational value. Our results indicate that tensions to finance public debt in integrated financial markets are the main contributor to weakened support for EU integration. Particularly, large yield spreads increase the polarization on this issue at the country level. Moreover, as a confirmation of a-priori expectations, we find that the national support for EU integration sees a fostering in times of economic upswing and under beneficial structural EU funding. These results indicate that it becomes crucial to monitor increasing international yield differences as they could prepare the ground for claims for EU disintegration policies, thereby, threatening future advances of the EU integration project.

中文翻译：

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国家对欧洲一体化项目的支持：金融一体化重要吗？

我们分析了市场对实际金融一体化的看法在多大程度上影响了国家层面的欧盟一体化支持。作为金融市场一体化实现状态的指标，我们依赖于长期政府债务的收益率差异。为了确定可能破坏一体化进程的特定情况，我们建议采用一种新的欧盟一体化风险衡量标准，该措施满足确保其信息价值所需的许多特性。我们的结果表明，一体化金融市场中公共债务融资的紧张局势是削弱对欧盟一体化支持的主要因素。特别是，巨大的收益率差加剧了国家层面在这个问题上的两极分化。此外，作为对先验期望的确认，我们发现，国家对欧盟一体化的支持在经济上升时期和有利的欧盟结构性资金下得到了促进。这些结果表明，监控日益增加的国际产量差异变得至关重要，因为它们可以为欧盟解体政策的索赔做好准备，从而威胁欧盟一体化项目的未来进展。