Detected or reported (“observed”) rates of sexual reoffending have long been recognized as underestimating the occurrence of actual sexual recidivism. Past attempts to bridge the gap between the two rates have been unsuccessful. Scurich and John try to reverse this course by presenting a simulation model to estimate the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sexual offenses based on three parameters; they also apply these data to calibrate the sexual recidivism rates from four sexual recidivism studies. The accuracy of the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates is wholly dependent upon the reliability of the inputs to the model. This analysis relies upon scientific studies and literature to delve into the precision of the parameters of Scurich and John in relation to the accuracy of their predicted actual sexual recidivism rates and the validity of the calibration process. The results reveal that some of the assumptions by Scurich and John about the parameters are supported empirically, while others are not. Overall, the simulation model parameters suffer from significant deficiencies that likely produce inaccurate predicted actual sexual recidivism rates. Moreover, the methodologies of the comparison studies used in the calibration process do not actually meet the requirements of the analytic strategy of Scurich and John, which effectively invalidates their findings. Until computational strategies are employed that account for linear and nonlinear effects of model parameters, closing the gap between observed and actual sexual recidivism rates will remain elusive.

中文翻译：

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照亮性累犯的黑暗人物

长期以来，发现或报告（“观察到”）的性犯罪率一直被认为低估了实际的性累犯现象。过去试图弥合这两种比率之间的差距的尝试均未成功。Scurich和John尝试通过提供一个模拟模型来逆转这一过程，该模型基于三个参数来估计被定罪为性犯罪的个人中预计的实际性累犯率。他们还运用这些数据来校准四项性累犯研究中的性累犯率。预测的实际性累犯率的准确性完全取决于模型输入的可靠性。该分析依靠科学研究和文献来研究Scurich和John的参数的精度，这些参数与预测的实际性累犯率的准确性和校准过程的有效性有关。结果表明，Scurich和John关于参数的某些假设在经验上得到了支持，而另一些则没有。总体而言，模拟模型参数存在明显的缺陷，可能会导致预测的实际性累犯率不准确。此外，在校准过程中使用的比较研究的方法论实际上并不符合Scurich和John的分析策略的要求，这实际上使他们的发现无效。