An effective budgetary process requires accurate forecasts of future economic activity. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission’s Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented here which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the enhanced EU fiscal framework. Forecasts of output growth are unduly pessimistic, irrational, and influenced by recent economic activity. The article considers the reasons for and implications of such biases and proposes improvements to forecasting processes that could address these issues.

中文翻译：

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欧盟对产出增长的官方预测仍存在偏见吗？

有效的预算流程需要对未来的经济活动进行准确的预测。使用来自稳定与收敛计划和欧盟委员会的春季预测的数据，此处提供了证据，表明在增强的欧盟财政框架下欧盟官方预测存在缺陷。对产出增长的预测过于悲观，不合理，并且受近期经济活动的影响。本文考虑了这种偏见的原因和含义，并提出了可以解决这些问题的预测流程的改进建议。