In response to an adverse labor-market shock, a calibrated heterogeneous-agent model predicts that aggregate spending on durable goods falls mainly due to the ex-ante increase in income uncertainty caused by higher unemployment risk. In contrast, aggregate spending on nondurable goods falls mainly due to the ex-post income losses associated with realized unemployment spells. When households hold little liquid assets, the nondurable spending response is amplified, whereas the durable spending response is dampened. These differences stem from micro-level adjustment frictions involved in purchases of durable goods. The model is corroborated with evidence from micro survey data.

为了应对不利的劳动力市场冲击，经过校准的异质代理模型预测，耐用品的总支出下降主要是由于较高的失业风险导致收入不确定性事前增加。相反，非耐用品的总支出下降主要是由于与实际失业情况相关的事后收入损失。当家庭持有很少的流动资产时，非持久性支出的反应会被放大，而持久性支出的反应会受到抑制。这些差异源于耐用品购买中涉及的微观调整摩擦。该模型得到了微观调查数据的佐证。