Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate informational assumptions about foresight from physical assumptions about the dynamics of the processes itself. We then develop a theory of endogenous foresight in which the type of foresight is chosen optimally by economic agents. In a prototypical dynamic model of consumption and saving, we derive a closed-form solution to the optimal foresight problem.

中文翻译：

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最佳预见

当代理商收到有关随机过程的信息时，他们具有先见之明，该信息超出了其当前和过去的历史记录中所包含的信息。在本文中，我们提出了一种信息理论上对信息结构中的预见量的度量，并展示了如何将关于预见的信息假设与关于过程本身动力学的物理假设分开。然后，我们发展了一种内源性的预见理论，其中，预见的类型是由经济主体最佳选择的。在消费和储蓄的典型动态模型中，我们得出了最佳预见问题的封闭形式的解决方案。