Households' inflation perceptions and expectations play a key role in many dynamic macroeconomic and monetary models and are important for the ability of central banks to reach their objective of price stability. This paper revisits the issue of overestimation bias in inflation perceptions and expectations based on new and unique microdata from the Danish part of the EU-Harmonised Consumer Expectations Survey linked to rich household-level data from administrative registers. The analysis shows that accounting for even several of the household characteristics and social gradients usually addressed in the literature is far from sufficient to explain the inflation perception bias. Furthermore, we find that respondents participating in the survey more than once tend to be persistent in their degree of perception bias and that overpessimistic households have larger perception bias than other households. This indicates that inflation perception bias is related to fundamental personality traits. Finally, households' expectations of the future inflation level tend to be mean reverting and associated with the same types of bias as inflation perceptions.

家庭的通货膨胀感知和期望在许多动态的宏观经济和货币模型中起着关键作用，对于中央银行实现其价格稳定目标的能力至关重要。本文基于欧盟协调的消费者期望调查的丹麦部分中的新的独特数据与行政登记册中丰富的家庭数据相关联，重新审视了通货膨胀感知和期望中高估偏差的问题。分析表明，即使仅考虑文献中通常提到的几个家庭特征和社会梯度，也不足以解释通货膨胀感知偏差。此外，我们发现，参与调查的受访者不止一次倾向于保持他们的感知偏差程度，而且过于悲观的家庭比其他家庭具有更大的感知偏差。这表明通货膨胀感知偏差与基本人格特征有关。最后，家庭对未来通货膨胀水平的期望趋于平息，并与通货膨胀感知产生相同类型的偏见。