We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.

我们从经验上探讨宏观经济和政策不确定性在解释专业预测者密度预测中的离散度以及解释单个预测者不确定性（定义为单个预测者在其密度预测中表示的不确定性）中的作用。我们使用费城联储1992-2016年季度专业预报员调查（SPF）的数据，重点关注美国实际产出的增长和通货膨胀。我们发现，个人密度预测中的离散与宏观经济不确定性有关，特别是在较长的预测中，与政策或预测者的不确定性无关。也几乎没有证据表明预测者的不确定性反映了宏观经济或政策的不确定性。