Using unique micro data compiled from the real estate registry in Japan, we examine more than 400,000 loan-to-value (LTV) business loan ratios to draw implications for caps on LTV ratios as a macroprudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality, behavior that would have severely impeded the efficacy of a simple LTV cap had it been imposed. We also find that borrowers obtaining high-LTV loans are more risky but grew faster than those with lower LTV loans, which implies that a simple fixed cap on LTV ratios might inhibit growing (albeit risky) firms from borrowing.

中文翻译：

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顺周期贷款和宏观审慎政策：来自日本LTV比率的证据

我们使用从日本房地产注册机构收集的独特微观数据，研究了超过40万笔贷款对价值（LTV）商业贷款比率，以作为宏观审慎的政策衡量标准，对LTV比率上限进行了暗示。我们发现，LTV比率表现出反周期性，如果强加了简单的LTV上限，其行为将严重阻碍其有效性。我们还发现，获得高LTV贷款的借款人比低LTV贷款的借款人风险更高，但增长速度更快，这意味着简单的LTV比率固定上限可能会抑制成长（尽管有风险）的公司借款。