In this study, I examine whether macro disagreement, a higher-order uncertainty, affects the accuracy and informativeness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using macroeconomic dispersion measures from the Survey of Professional Forecasters database as a proxy for macro disagreement, I find that macro disagreement reduces forecast accuracy. I further explore this association for firms that are high in cyclicality and for analysts who enjoy more brokerage resources. The negative relationship between macro disagreement and forecast accuracy is more pronounced for firms that are high in cyclicality. I also find that brokerage resources have a moderating effect on the negative association between macro disagreement and forecast accuracy. I further find that the analyst earnings forecast is less informative to investors when macro disagreement is high.

在这项研究中，我研究了宏观分歧（一种较高阶的不确定性）是否会影响分析师收益预测的准确性和信息性。我使用“专业预测者调查”数据库中的宏观经济分散指标作为宏观差异的代表，我发现宏观差异降低了预测的准确性。我将为周期性较高的公司和享有更多经纪资源的分析师探索这种协会。对于周期性较高的公司，宏观分歧与预测准确性之间的负相关关系更为明显。我还发现，经纪资源对宏观分歧和预测准确性之间的负相关性具有调节作用。我进一步发现，在宏观分歧很高的情况下，分析师的收益预测对投资者的信息较少。