We analyse the factors influencing Indian households’ inflation expectations and draw out implications for inflation targeting. The literature finds news on inflation affecting expectations. Using quarterly data from India over 2008–2019, we find: (i) in estimated epidemiological models of learning in expectation formation, the response coefficient on inflation news in the shape of central bank forecasts exceeds coefficients estimated for advanced economies, implying official views having a relatively greater weight on expectations; (ii) error variance decompositions of expectations to shocks in variables including commodity and core inflations, demand and policy variables in a series of SVARs, also show policy communications affecting expectations in the short-term. Food inflation has a significant short-run effect on expectations, but demand determined core inflation dominates over the long run; (iii) impulse responses show a rise in the policy rate raising expectations. The above results show communications as more effective than policy rates in influencing inflation expectations.

我们分析了影响印度家庭通胀预期的因素，并提出了针对通胀目标的含义。文献中发现有关通货膨胀影响预期的消息。使用2008-2019年印度的季度数据，我们发现：（i）在预期形成学习的估计流行病学模型中，以中央银行预测形式出现的通货膨胀消息的响应系数超过了发达经济体的估计系数，这意味着官方观点期望值相对较大；（ii）对一系列变量（包括商品和核心通货膨胀，一系列SVAR中的需求和政策变量）的冲击的期望值的误差方差分解，也表明政策沟通会在短期内影响期望值。粮食通胀会对预期产生重大的短期影响，但从长远来看，需求决定的核心通货膨胀占主导地位；（iii）冲动反应表明提高政策利率的预期。以上结果表明，在影响通胀预期方面，沟通比政策利率更有效。