The ‘competitive threat’ theoretical model leads to the expectation that flows of documented and undocumented immigrants, economic downturns, and spread of conservative-nationalist ideologies would increase opposition to immigration. Recent studies on attitudes toward immigrants in American society do not show any increase in anti-immigrant sentiment. In the present study, we use data from the General Social Surveys (GSS) and American National Election Survey (ANES) to study change in opposition to immigration between 1996 and 2018. The findings obtained from the two data sources are strikingly similar and lead to the following conclusions. First, opposition to immigration had steadily and monotonously declined throughout the period. Second, the decline is evident even after considering variations and changes in the composition of the population, shifts in political ideologies, regional variations and cohort replacement. Third, the trend of decline in opposition to immigration takes a linear form. Fourth, opposition to immigration is stronger among Republicans and Independent voters than among Democrats. Fifth, the overtime decline in opposition to immigration was evident mostly among supporters of the Democratic Party increasing the division along party lines. The findings suggest that immigration is becoming a major political issue that is steadily polarizing American society.

“竞争性威胁”理论模型导致人们期望，有证件移民和无证件移民的涌入，经济下滑以及保守民族主义思想的传播将增加对移民的反对。最近关于美国社会对移民态度的研究并未显示反移民情绪的任何提高。在本研究中，我们使用来自一般社会调查（GSS）和美国全国选举调查（ANES）的数据来研究1996年至2018年期间反对移民的变化。从这两个数据源获得的发现惊人地相似，并导致以下结论。首先，在此期间，对移民的反对意见一直稳定单调下降。其次，即使考虑了人口组成的变化和变化，下降仍然是明显的，政治意识形态的变化，地区差异和同类群组的替换。第三，反对移民人数下降的趋势呈线性形式。第四，共和党人和独立选民对移民的反对比民主党人更强烈。第五，反对移民的加班现象明显减少，这在民主党的支持者中尤为明显，这加剧了党派之间的分歧。研究结果表明，移民正在成为一个重大的政治问题，正在两极分化美国社会。反对移民的加班时间明显减少，这在民主党的支持者中尤为明显，这加剧了党派之间的分歧。研究结果表明，移民正在成为一个重大的政治问题，正在两极分化美国社会。反对移民的加班时间明显减少，这在民主党的支持者中尤为明显，这加剧了党派之间的分歧。研究结果表明，移民正在成为一个重大的政治问题，正在两极分化美国社会。