This paper uses a calibrated “pedagogical production function” model to estimate the potential long-term losses to children’s learning from the temporary shock of Covid-19 related school closures. It then models possible gains from two mitigation strategies. Without mitigation, children could lose more than a full year’s worth of learning from a three-month school closure because they will be behind the curriculum when they re-enter school and will fall further behind as time goes on. Remediation when children return to school reduces the long-term learning loss by half, but still leaves children more than half a year behind where they would have been with no shock. Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of curriculum to align with children’s learning levels fully mitigates the long-term learning loss due to the shock and surpasses the learning in the counterfactual of no shock by more than a full year’s worth of learning. Systems need to begin planning now for remediation programmes, and as they do so they should build programmes and train teachers in ways that can continue to produce benefits beyond the period immediately following reopening.

本文使用经过校准的“教学生产功能”模型来估计由于Covid-19相关学校停课的暂时冲击而给儿童学习带来的潜在长期损失。然后，它模拟了两种缓解策略可能带来的收益。如果没有缓解措施，孩子们可能会因三个月的停课而失去超过一年的学习价值，因为他们重新上学时将落后于课程设置，并且随着时间的推移会进一步落后。儿童重返校园后的补救措施将长期学习损失减少了一半，但仍使儿童落后原本不会震惊的半年多。补救措施与课程的长期调整相结合，以符合儿童的学习水平，可以充分缓解由于冲击而造成的长期学习损失，并且在无冲击的反事实中超出了一年的学习价值。系统现在需要开始计划修复计划，并且这样做的时候，系统应该建立计划并培训老师，使他们可以在重新开放后的一段时间内继续产生收益。