The Cuban government often boasts that the country’s infant mortality rate has been low and falling since Fidel Castro’s revolution in 1959. However, because many Latin American countries have experienced similar decreases, and because Cuba historically enjoyed lower infant mortality rates than the rest of Latin America, it is unclear whether the government should get credit. We use the fact that Cuba underwent momentous and unique political changes to consider the effect of Castro’s regime on infant mortality. We employ a synthetic control method to ascertain how much of the reduction, if any, can be attributed to the regime. We find that in the first decade of the regime, infant mortality increased relative to the counterfactual, but that—after the introduction of Soviet subsidies—infant mortality partially reverted to trend. To measure the effect of the subsidies, we run a second synthetic control test concerning the collapse of the Soviet Union and the accompanying end of the subsidies. This control suggests that the subsidies played no important role.

古巴政府常常自夸自1959年菲德尔·卡斯特罗（Fidel Castro）革命以来，该国的婴儿死亡率一直处于低位并呈下降趋势。但是，由于许多拉丁美洲国家经历了类似的下降，而且由于古巴历来的婴儿死亡率低于其他拉丁美洲国家尚不清楚政府是否应获得信誉。我们利用古巴经历了重大而独特的政治变化这一事实来考虑卡斯特罗政权对婴儿死亡率的影响。我们采用一种综合控制方法来确定减少量（如果有的话）可归因于该制度。我们发现，在该政权的头十年中，婴儿死亡率相对于反事实增加了，但是，在实行苏联补贴之后，婴儿死亡率部分恢复了趋势。为了衡量补贴的效果，我们进行了第二次综合控制测试，涉及苏联的解体以及补贴随之而来的情况。这种控制表明补贴没有发挥重要作用。