We measure the contributions of loan supply shocks and other macroeconomic shocks to U.S. output dynamics during the Great Depression. Using structural vector autoregressions, we impose sign restrictions to identify shocks. We find that loan supply shocks contributed negatively to output growth between 1931 and 1933, at the same time as the U.S. experienced several waves of banking crises. Thus, our results support the view that disruptions in credit availability contributed to the depth and length of the Great Depression. We also find that adverse aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks were important factors in the downturn.

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分解美国大萧条：贷款供应冲击有多重要？

我们评估了大萧条期间贷款供应冲击和其他宏观经济冲击对美国产出动态的贡献。使用结构矢量自回归，我们施加符号限制来识别冲击。我们发现，在美国经历数次银行危机浪潮的同时，贷款供给冲击对1931年至1933年之间的产出增长产生了负面影响。因此，我们的结果支持这样一种观点，即信贷可用性的中断加剧了大萧条的深度和持续时间。我们还发现不利的总需求和货币政策冲击是经济下滑的重要因素。