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A new multivariate approach for assessing corporate financial risk using balance sheets
Borsa Istanbul Review ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2020.10.007
Mehmet Selman Çolak

Several indicators and univariate ratios can be used to measure the soundness of firms as reflected in their balance sheets (leverage, profitability, liquidity ratio, etc.). However, each indicator alone cannot measure a firm's overall financial risk or financial distress level. In this study, we measure the financial strength of the real sector firms listed on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) by producing a composite index score that combines several different corporate finance ratios. In the first section, we conduct a multiple discriminant analysis of the variables used in Altman's z-score (1968), which is the most prevalent composite index used to measure firms' financial risk in the literature. In the second section, we introduce a new index, called the multivariate firm assessment (MFA) score, which uses the ratios that best explain the characteristics of companies listed on the BIST. The Tailored version of the Altman z-score and our new index have predictive power of around 90 percent. Furthermore, the MFA score reflects the impact of macroeconomic developments on firms' balance sheets and thus serves as an early warning of financial distress for Turkish firms. Our analyses using the MFA score suggest that non-exporting firms and firms with an open foreign exchange position have weaker balance sheets.



中文翻译:

使用资产负债表评估企业财务风险的新多元方法

几个指标和单变量比率可用于衡量资产负债表中反映的公司的稳健性(杠杆、盈利能力、流动性比率等)。然而,单独的每个指标并不能衡量一个公司的整体财务风险或财务困境水平。在本研究中,我们通过生成一个综合指数评分来衡量在伊斯坦布尔证券交易所 (BIST) 上市的实体部门公司的财务实力,该评分结合了几种不同的公司财务比率。在第一部分,我们对 Altman 的 z-score (1968) 中使用的变量进行了多重判别分析,这是文献中用来衡量公司财务风险的最普遍的综合指数。在第二部分中,我们引入了一个新的指标,称为多元公司评估 (MFA) 分数,它使用最能解释 BIST 上市公司特征的比率。Altman z-score 的定制版本和我们的新指数具有大约 90% 的预测能力。此外,MFA 分数反映了宏观经济发展对公司资产负债表的影响,因此可以作为土耳其公司财务困境的预警。我们使用 MFA 分数的分析表明,非出口公司和拥有开放外汇头寸的公司的资产负债表较弱。

更新日期:2020-10-23
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