Abstract

Research has paid little attention to how overconfidence evolves over time. We examined how task experience (experience within a task using a sequence of items) and outcome feedback affected accuracy, confidence and overconfidence in experiments over several trials. We conducted five studies involving 614 participants and used growth curve modelling and cross-lagged analyses. Findings revealed that mere task experience (without feedback) reduced overestimation linearly. Task experience coupled with feedback reduced overconfidence quadratically; the decreasing rate was initially strong but faded away over time. The decrease in overestimation was explained due to accuracy increasing at a faster rate than confidence did. Accuracy had lagged effects on confidence; a correct estimate led to more confidence in a subsequent estimate. We also found some evidence indicating that confidence had a negative lagged influence on accuracy. This dynamic influence between accuracy and confidence is a unique finding in the overconfidence literature.

摘要

研究很少关注过度自信是如何随时间演变的。我们研究了任务体验（使用一系列项目的任务体验）和结果反馈如何影响多次试验中实验的准确性、信心和过度自信。我们进行了五项研究，涉及 614 名参与者，并使用了生长曲线模型和交叉滞后分析。结果表明，单纯的任务体验（没有反馈）线性地减少了高估。任务体验与反馈相结合，可以二次减少过度自信；下降速度最初很强劲，但随着时间的推移逐渐消失。高估减少的原因是准确率的增加速度比置信度快。准确性对信心的影响滞后；正确的估计会导致对随后的估计更有信心。我们还发现一些证据表明信心对准确性有负面滞后影响。准确性和信心之间的这种动态影响是过度自信文献中的一个独特发现。