ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to determine Nigeria’s long-run growth path using a multi-sectoral version of the balance of payment constrained growth model from 1981 to 2016. It particularly contends that the actual growth of an economy is highly connected to sectoral differences in elasticities of income of tradable goods produced in the economy. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach is employed to obtain the required elasticities for the determination of the equilibrium growth rate. In line with research expectations, the first outcome of the study reveals that while, machinery and equipment turned out with the highest income elasticity; animal, fats and vegetable products was the lowest. This suggests that transition from primary production to the production of products of hi-tech products is necessary for growth. Second, high reliance on intermediate imports with high income elasticity could harm growth in the long run.

摘要

本文试图使用1981年至2016年的国际收支限制增长模型的多部门版本来确定尼日利亚的长期增长路径。它尤其主张经济的实际增长与收入弹性的部门差异高度相关经济中生产的可贸易商品的数量。采用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）方法来获得确定平衡增长率所需的弹性。与研究预期相符，该研究的第一个结果表明，虽然机械和设备的收入弹性最高，但其收入弹性却最高。动物，脂肪和蔬菜制品最低。这表明从初级生产向高科技产品生产过渡对于增长是必要的。第二，