ABSTRACT

This study computed the comparative advantage (CA) of 28 oil-producing countries in crude oil over the period 1990–2016 using Normalised Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index and applied a Panel ARDL model to investigate the determinants of the CA. The results of the NRCA index indicated that not all the sampled 28 countries have a CA in crude oil production. The Panel econometric estimation revealed that in the long run, all the investigated explanatory variables are fundamental determinants of the CA of crude oil. Specifically, crude oil price (COP), a daily average of crude oil production (DAP), and institutional quality (IQ) contribute significantly e to increase in the CA of crude oil, while higher domestic demand for crude oil (DDO) and proven reserve (PR) decrease the CA. The negative effect of PR seems to align with the philosophy of scarcity rent. In the short run, the effects of COP and ADP remain the same, while PR, DDO, and IQ have insignificant effect. The Panel-causality results detected a feedback effect between the NRCA and all the explanatory variables.

摘要

这项研究使用标准化显性比较优势（NRCA）指数计算了28个产油国在1990-2016年期间的原油比较优势（CA），并应用Panel ARDL模型研究了CA的决定因素。NRCA指数的结果表明，并非所有采样的28个国家在原油生产中都具有CA。面板计量经济学估计显示，从长远来看，所有研究的解释变量都是原油CA的基本决定因素。具体而言，原油价格（COP），每日平均原油产量（DAP）和机构质量（IQ）极大地促进了原油CA的提高，同时国内对原油（DDO）的需求不断增加且已探明储备（PR）降低CA。公关的负面影响似乎与稀缺租金的哲学一致。在短期内，COP和ADP的影响保持不变，而PR，DDO和IQ的影响不明显。面板因果关系结果检测到了NRCA与所有解释变量之间的反馈效应。