ABSTRACT

This paper explores the use of simulations in policy decision-making in the Brazilian State of São Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a methodology for assessing the daily economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of coronavirus. The method is based on the partial hypothetical extraction approach to input–output systems. Simulated daily scenarios based on different levels of compliance to the control measures are used to help guide the design of sectoral and territorial-based policies to ease lockdown against the coronavirus outbreak, taking into account the economic and sanitary trade-offs. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top-level decision-making.

摘要

本文探讨了在巴西圣保罗州抗击 COVID-19 大流行的政策决策中使用模拟。我们提出了一种方法来评估减轻冠状病毒影响的控制策略的日常经济成本。该方法基于输入-输出系统的部分假设提取方法。基于对控制措施的不同遵守程度的模拟日常情景用于帮助指导基于部门和地域的政策的设计，以缓解对冠状病毒爆发的封锁，同时考虑到经济和卫生方面的权衡。我们提供了可以证实顶级决策的模拟示例。