After experiencing a period of spectacular growth during the late nineteenth century, the Egyptian cotton sector underwent a phase of stagnation, which was followed by a gradual and steady increase in output during the interwar period. Drawing on a new panel dataset at the province–year level, this article explores the determinants of the upturn in cotton output, running a horserace between credit, seed technology, and infrastructure. In order to address endogeneity concerns, an instrumental variable approach is adopted, using a modified version of Bartik's shift‐share instrumental variable. Our results provide supporting evidence that peasants switched to a lower‐yielding cotton variety as a response to changes in relative price. Moreover, our production function estimates show that two key factors had a positive impact on output growth: credit availability and the adoption of new cotton varieties.

中文翻译：

---

克服两次世界大战期间埃及的棉花危机：灌溉，排水，新种子和获得信贷的作用†

在经历了19世纪后期的惊人增长之后，埃及的棉花部门进入了停滞阶段，随后在两次战争之间逐渐稳定地增加了产量。本文利用省级年的一个新的面板数据集，探索了棉花产量增长的决定因素，这些因素是信贷，种子技术和基础设施之间的竞争。为了解决内生性问题，采用了工具变量方法，使用了Bartik的班次转移工具变量。我们的结果提供了支持性证据，表明农民转向相对低产的棉花品种是对相对价格变化的反应。此外，我们的生产函数估计表明两个关键因素对产出增长产生了积极影响：