There are striking similarities between today’s early 21st century trade political economy and its late 19th century equivalent. Ascendant populist nationalism, escalating trade protectionism and tariff wars, growing discontent over globalization’s distributional impacts and fast emerging economic superpowers disrupting the global order are features shared by both periods. This comparative historical analysis explores what lessons and conclusions we may draw from the past late 19th century world that can be applied to today. Integral to this discussion are the prospects of our early 21st century world experiencing a similar endgame of global conflict, as transpired around a century ago. In revisiting the past to better understand the present and future, this paper first evaluates empirical similarities between the trade political economies of both periods. It then applies theories and concepts of economic nationalism, globalization and interdependence in developing deeper conclusions and arguments. Brexit, Trump and their historic parallels serve as primary focal points in this study.

中文翻译：

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英国退欧、特朗普和贸易：回到 19 世纪末的未来？

今天的 21 世纪早期贸易政治经济学与其 19 世纪晚期的贸易政治经济学有着惊人的相似之处。上升的民粹民族主义、不断升级的贸易保护主义和关税战、对全球化分配影响的日益不满以及快速崛起的经济超级大国扰乱全球秩序是两个时期的共同特征。这种比较历史分析探讨了我们可以从过去的 19 世纪末世界中得出哪些可以应用于今天的教训和结论。本次讨论不可或缺的是我们 21 世纪初的世界正在经历类似一个世纪前发生的全球冲突的结局的前景。在重温过去以更好地了解现在和未来时，本文首先评估了两个时期贸易政治经济之间的经验相似性。然后，它应用经济民族主义、全球化和相互依存的理论和概念来得出更深入的结论和论点。英国退欧、特朗普及其历史相似之处是本研究的主要焦点。