Background: The federal state of Saarland (SL) is experiencing the fastest demographic change in the western part of Germany. In this study, we analyzed retrospective data on the current and future supply of red blood cell concentrates (RBC) in this region and compared it to the current and future RBC demand in SL hospitals. Methods: The projection of the SL blood supply in 2030 was modeled based on SL demographics for age distribution and donation frequency of donors, and the RBC transfusion data for in-house patients. These results were compared to published data on the transfusion demand from the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MV). Results: For the period January 1 to December 31, 2017, a total of 43,205 whole blood donations were collected. The donation frequency in SL never exceeded 80 per 1,000 inhabitants and was well below the numbers in MV. Thirty-one percent of the donors were responsible for 53.5% of the donations, and donors older than 45 years of age contributed highly to the total blood supply. In addition, 40,614 RBC transfusions at 10 SL hospitals were analyzed representing nearly all RBC transfusions for in-house patients in this region. RBC transfusions per 1,000 inhabitants increased with age from 24 (50–54) to 140 (80–84) years. Facing an already existing structural deficit of nearly 8,200 RBC in 2017, the projection predicts a dramatic increase in the regional deficit to #x3e;18,300 RBC in 2030. Conclusion: Our results on RBC demand in SL are comparable but not identical to those projected for the region of MV in eastern Germany. Due to the ongoing demographic changes in Germany as a whole, regular regional monitoring of RBC demand and the age structure of blood recipients and donors should be implemented to allow for better strategic planning in blood transfusion services and hospitals.
Transfus Med Hemother

中文翻译：

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基于人口的人口统计学对萨尔州当前和未来血液供应的影响分析

背景：萨尔州（SL）在德国西部经历了最快的人口变化。在这项研究中，我们分析了有关该地区当前和未来红细胞浓缩物（RBC）供应的回顾性数据，并将其与SL医院当前和未来的RBC需求进行了比较。方法：根据SL人口统计学模型，对2030年SL血供预测，以供体的年龄分布和捐赠频率，以及内部患者的RBC输血数据为模型。将这些结果与梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州（MV）州有关输血需求的公开数据进行了比较。结果：在2017年1月1日至12月31日期间，共收集了43205份全血。SL中的捐赠频率从未超过每千居民80个，而且远低于MV中的数字。31％的献血者占献血的53.5％，而45岁以上的献血者为总血液供应做出了重要贡献。此外，分析了10家SL医院的40,614例RBC输血，几乎代表了该地区内部患者的所有RBC输血。每1000名居民的RBC输血年龄从24（50-54）岁增加到140（80-84）岁。面对2017年已经存在的近8,200 RBC的结构性赤字，该预测预测该地区赤字将急剧增加至＃x3e; 2030年将达到18,300 RBC。结论：我们对SL中RBC需求的结果与德国东部MV地区的预测结果相当，但并不相同。由于整个德国人口的不断变化，应该对RBC的需求以及受血者和献血者的年龄结构进行定期的区域监测，以便更好地进行输血服务和医院的战略规划。
Transfus Med Hemother