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Association between COVID-19 cases and international equity indices
Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132809
Nick James 1 , Max Menzies 2
Affiliation  

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the populations and equity markets of 92 countries. We compare country-by-country equity market dynamics to cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts and new case trajectories. First, we examine the multivariate time series of cumulative cases and deaths, particularly regarding their changing structure over time. We reveal similarities between the case and death time series, and key dates that the structure of the time series changed. Next, we classify new case time series, demonstrate five characteristic classes of trajectories, and quantify discrepancy between them with respect to the behavior of waves of the disease. Finally, we show there is no relationship between countries’ equity market performance and their success in managing COVID-19. Each country’s equity index has been unresponsive to the domestic or global state of the pandemic. Instead, these indices have been highly uniform, with most movement in March.



中文翻译:


COVID-19 病例与国际股票指数之间的关联



本文分析了 COVID-19 对 92 个国家的人口和股票市场的影响。我们将各国股票市场动态与累积的 COVID-19 病例和死亡人数以及新病例轨迹进行比较。首先,我们检查累积病例和死亡的多变量时间序列,特别是它们随时间变化的结构。我们揭示了病例和死亡时间序列之间的相似性,以及时间序列结构发生变化的关键日期。接下来,我们对新病例时间序列进行分类,展示轨迹的五个特征类别,并量化它们之间关于疾病波行为的差异。最后,我们表明各国股市表现与其在管理 COVID-19 方面的成功之间没有关系。每个国家的股指都对国内或全球的疫情状况反应迟钝。相反,这些指数高度一致,三月份变动最大。

更新日期:2020-12-23
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