This paper investigates expert revisions of potential output (PO) estimates following recessions. Using data from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD), we show that downward revisions are substantial, permanent, and mostly driven by supply shocks. In contrast, PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. Revisions are also partly caused by mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre‐recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are correlated with post‐recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis following demand shocks.

中文翻译：

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经济衰退和潜在产出：消除测量误差，电源冲击和磁滞效应*

本文调查了经济衰退后对潜在产出（PO）估算的专家修订。使用来自经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的数据，我们表明向下修正是实质性的，永久性的，并且主要是由供应冲击驱动的。相反，采购订单估计值对需求冲击没有明显反应。修订还部分归因于经济衰退前对PO的错误计量。特别是，我们表明前一时期的繁荣期和经常账户余额和信贷量的衰退前值与衰退后PO修订相关。我们的结果要求改进估计PO的方法，并提供针对需求冲击后存在明显滞后现象的证据。