ABSTRACT

This study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) in five GCC countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study uses an augmented production function and annual time series data over the period 1975-2016. For the estimation of the models, the Johansen cointegration test is employed to test the existence of a long-run relationship between growth and exports. In addition, the multivariate Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model framework and a modified version of the Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The empirical results provide evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run for the UAE, while the converse is true for Bahrain. In addition, a bi-directional causality exists between exports and growth in the case of Kuwait. In the long-run, the validity of the ELG is confirmed in the case of Bahrain, while economic growth causes exports in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

摘要

这项研究调查了五个海湾合作委员会国家（即巴林，科威特，阿曼，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国）的出口导向型增长假设（ELG）的有效性。该研究使用了增强的生产函数和1975-2016年期间的年度时间序列数据。为了评估模型，采用约翰逊协整检验来检验增长与出口之间是否存在长期关系。此外，在向量自回归模型框架中的多元Granger因果关系检验和Wald检验的修改版本分别用于检验短期和长期因果关系的方向。实证结果为阿联酋短期内ELG假设的有效性提供了证据，而巴林则相反。此外，就科威特而言，出口与增长之间存在双向因果关系。从长远来看，ELG在巴林的情况下是有效的，而经济增长在科威特和沙特阿拉伯的情况下会导致出口。