The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to analyze the impact of investment policy decision on the firm value given the uncertain oil and gas prices and (ii) to propose policies that enhance firm value. The study develops a system dynamics model that integrates the financial and operational activities of oil firms. The simulation results reveal that, when oil and gas prices increase, positive future expectations lead to increased investments and reduced cash flows. Greater volume of investments over the firm's current investment policy decreases its future cash flows and the total firm value over the first 20 years of the simulation period; it increases thereafter. To support higher investments, the firm would issue a higher number of shares, and consequently the market price per share would be lower, and vice versa. The simulation results suggest a relatively lower volume of investments to increase the market price per share.

中文翻译：

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石油价格和投资如何影响公司价值的动态？

本研究的目的是双重的：（i）在不确定的石油和天然气价格的情况下，分析投资政策决策对公司价值的影响；（ii）提出提高公司价值的政策。该研究开发了一个系统动力学模型，该模型整合了石油公司的财务和运营活动。仿真结果表明，当石油和天然气价格上涨时，对未来的乐观预期会导致投资增加和现金流量减少。在公司的当前投资政策下，更大的投资量会减少其未来现金流量和整个模拟期前20年的公司总价值；此后它增加。为了支持更高的投资，该公司将发行更多数量的股票，因此，每股市场价格会更低，反之亦然。