In recent history, there has been an increasing concern about population aging and the associated increased economic burden in terms of high health‐care expenses and pension payments. The need for decision support tools that can explore population dynamics has become a prominent issue. This study presents a comprehensive framework where one can scrutinize the key demographic drives of fertility (Total Fertility Rate/Age‐Specific Fertility Rate) over macroeconomic indicators (technology, education, human capital) under exogenous mortality. The integrated model in this article is developed based on a reformulation of the unified growth theory. In the reformulated model, namely the “economy‐demography model,” the population age/sex structure is preserved, age‐specific mortality is included, and fertility is measured in conventional demographic terms. The model is then presented in system dynamics framework, and its practical use is showcased with data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute.

中文翻译：

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在系统动力学设置中重新构建的综合经济人口统计学模型

在最近的历史中，人们对人口老龄化以及随之而来的高负担的医疗保健费用和养老金支付日益增加的经济负担越来越关注。对能够探索人口动态的决策支持工具的需求已成为一个突出的问题。这项研究提出了一个全面的框架，在该框架下，人们可以根据外来死亡率下的宏观经济指标（技术，教育，人力资本），仔细研究人口出生率的关键驱动因素（总出生率/特定年龄的出生率）。本文中的集成模型是在统一增长理论的基础上开发的。在重新制定的模型（即“经济人口统计模型”）中，保留了人口年龄/性别结构，包括了特定年龄的死亡率，并以传统的人口统计学方法衡量了生育率。