We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short‐run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short‐run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short‐run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short‐run asymmetric effects lasted into long‐run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one‐third of the trade.

中文翻译：

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汇率波动对贸易流量的非对称影响：美英商品贸易的证据

我们考虑了在美国和英国之间交易的67个行业中的每个行业对实际美元-英镑汇率波动的响应。当我们遵循先前的研究并估计每个行业的线性ARDL模型时，我们发现对英国的22个美国出口行业的波动具有短期影响，长期影响仅在9个行业中存在。至于英国对美国的出口，我们发现18个行业的短期效应持续到15个行业的长期效应。但是，当我们估计每个行业的非线性模型时，我们发现波动对41个美国出口行业和43个英国出口行业的短期影响都是不对称的。短期不对称效应在美国向英国的24个出口行业和对美国的33个英国出口行业中一直持续到长期不对称效应。虽然线性模型中的行业总贸易份额可以忽略不计，但非线性模型中的行业总份额却相当可观，仅为贸易总额的三分之一。