Using the Michigan Survey, I show that consumers' house price expectations depend upon the recent history of house price developments in their city of residence. Forecast errors are predictable: people systematically underestimate momentum and neglect mean reversion, remaining over-optimistic for several quarters after a prolonged trend of house price growth, and vice versa. Housing appreciation also increases the share of consumers who believe that real estate is a good investment. Combining loan-level data from Freddie Mac to regional measures of housing sentiment, I show that an exogenous shift in house price expectations leads to an increase in leverage on new mortgage originations. The effect is concentrated on investment properties and among prime borrowers in nonrecourse states.

中文翻译：

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房价历史、偏见预期和信贷周期：住房投资者的作用

使用密歇根调查，我表明消费者的房价预期取决于他们居住城市房价的近期发展历史。预测错误是可以预见的：人们系统性地低估了动量并忽略了均值回归，在房价长期上涨趋势之后的几个季度保持过度乐观，反之亦然。住房升值也增加了认为房地产是一项好的投资的消费者比例。将房地美 (Freddie Mac) 的贷款水平数据与区域性住房情绪指标相结合，我表明房价预期的外生变化会导致对新抵押贷款发起的杠杆作用增加。这种影响主要集中在投资性房地产和无追索权国家的主要借款人中。