Abstract In this study, we investigated the predictive value of Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) measures for performance on a high-stakes reading assessment at the end of third grade. DIBELS measures were administered to students at the end of third grade, around the same time as their high-stakes tests. Collectively, the measures succeeded in predicting 88.7% of those who would pass the high-stakes test, but only 68.8% of those who did not pass. Importantly, rate, alone, predicted 88.3% of those who would pass and 67.7% of those who did not pass. Multiple regression analyses were next used to test how well the subscales of DIBELS Next predicted students’ scores on Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT) in both the pass and fail groups. Also, for practical purposes, we examined both the scores and characteristics of students for whom the logistic regression failed to predicted performance. Implications for instruction, assessment, and future research are discussed.

中文翻译：

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预测三年级高风险阅读评估的表现

摘要 在这项研究中，我们调查了基本早期识字技能动态指标 (DIBELS) 措施对三年级末高风险阅读评估表现的预测价值。DIBELS 测量是在三年级结束时对学生进行的，大约与他们的高风险测试同时进行。总的来说，这些措施成功预测了 88.7% 的人会通过高风险测试，但只有 68.8% 的人没有通过。重要的是，仅 rate 就可以预测 88.3% 的通过者和 67.7% 的未通过者。接下来使用多元回归分析来测试 DIBELS Next 的分量表预测学生在阅读理解成绩测试 (RCAT) 中通过和失败组的分数的程度。此外，出于实用目的，我们检查了逻辑回归未能预测表现的学生的分数和特征。讨论了对教学、评估和未来研究的影响。