We discuss the behavioral and welfare implications of uncovering determinants of successful prevention. Based on a novel reinterpretation of prevention, we introduce the concept of technological transparency (TT)—the extent to which scientific knowledge allows agents to predict the success of their effort conditional on observable risk determinants. When risk determinants are observable ex ante, TT refines the information partition and induces more efficient prevention but does not necessarily improve welfare when the risk is insurable. At the same time, TT may harm welfare if information is incompletely disclosed. When risk determinants are only observable ex post, TT may increase effort by triggering future regret. Our framework facilitates a deeper understanding of the connection between knowledge and the efficient choice of preventive effort. Our findings inform the cost-benefit analysis of advancing knowledge about risk processes, as well as the effective disclosure of such knowledge to the public.

中文翻译：

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打开黑匣子：技术透明度和预防

我们讨论了揭示成功预防的决定因素对行为和福利的影响。基于对预防的全新重新解释，我们引入了技术透明度 (TT) 的概念——科学知识允许代理人根据可观察到的风险决定因素预测其努力的成功程度。当风险决定因素在事前可观察到时，TT 会细化信息划分并诱导更有效的预防，但在风险可保时不一定会改善福利。同时，如果信息披露不完整，TT 可能会损害福利。当风险决定因素只能事后观察时，TT 可能会通过触发未来的后悔来增加努力。我们的框架有助于更深入地了解知识与预防措施的有效选择之间的联系。