At present, serial theft case linkage remains at the stage of empiricism. In order to overcome this subjective arbitrariness, this study proposes using a ‘two‐step cumulative probability model’ for investigation. In the first step, based on expert grading method, the opinions of 99 policemen were combined to quantify the serial theft case characteristics. In the second step, when a new case occurred, the characteristics of it were compared with the characteristics of each serial theft case, and the corresponding probabilities were added according to the calculations of the second step; when the accumulated points exceeded the threshold, we considered concatenating the new case with the corresponding serial cases. The results demonstrated that the average accuracy of the two‐step cumulative probability model was 87.5% and that the average response rate of the irrelevant case (control group) was 12.3%. We concluded that the two‐step cumulative probability model could assist in criminal investigations.

中文翻译：

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基于两步累积概率模型的串行盗案关联

目前，连环盗案联动还处于经验主义阶段。为了克服这种主观的任意性，本研究提出使用“两步累积概率模型”进行调查。第一步，根据专家分级方法，结合99名警察的意见，对系列盗窃案的特征进行量化。第二步，当发生新的案件时，将其特征与每个连续盗窃案件的特征进行比较，并根据第二步的计算相加相应的概率；当累计点数超过阈值时，我们考虑将新案例与相应的连续案例连接起来。结果表明，两步累积概率模型的平均准确度为87。5％，无关病例（对照组）的平均缓解率为12.3％。我们得出的结论是，两步累积概率模型可以帮助进行刑事调查。