Driver turnover remains a pervasive challenge for truckload (TL) motor carriers. For more than two decades, carriers in this segment have faced the deleterious effects brought on by a persistently high driver turnover rate, including increased costs, decreased productivity, and the erosion of safety performance. In light of these issues, logistics scholars have conducted numerous driver-level and carrier-level investigations to better understand the antecedents of TL driver turnover. Yet, since driver turnover is an industry-wide issue, critical industry-level questions remain unanswered. This paper seeks to complement prior work by adopting labor economic theory and methods to investigate how the industry-level driver turnover rate evolves over time. In particular, we focus on how changing industry employment and wages impact the TL driver turnover rate across large carriers. We test our theory of industry-level turnover using the American Trucking Association's proprietary turnover data for large TL carriers as well as governmental archives on industry and economic conditions obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Estimation results from time-series regression modeling corroborate our theoretical arguments and hold important implications for TL motor carriers, shippers, and other industry stakeholders.

中文翻译：

---

探索纵向行业级大货车司机营业额

司机流失仍然是整车 (TL) 汽车运输公司普遍面临的挑战。二十多年来，这一领域的承运人面临着持续高司机流失率带来的不利影响，包括成本增加、生产力下降和安全绩效下降。针对这些问题，物流学者进行了大量司机层面和运营商层面的调查，以更好地了解 TL 司机离职的前因。然而，由于司机流失是一个全行业的问题，关键的行业层面的问题仍未得到解答。本文旨在通过采用劳动经济学理论和方法来研究行业层面的司机离职率如何随时间演变，从而补充先前的工作。特别是，我们关注行业就业和工资的变化如何影响大型航空公司的 TL 司机离职率。我们使用美国卡车运输协会专有的大型运输公司营业额数据以及从美国劳工统计局和美联储获得的有关行业和经济状况的政府档案来测试我们的行业级营业额理论。时间序列回归模型的估计结果证实了我们的理论论点，并对 TL 汽车承运人、托运人和其他行业利益相关者具有重要意义。劳工统计局和美联储。时间序列回归模型的估计结果证实了我们的理论论点，并对 TL 汽车承运人、托运人和其他行业利益相关者具有重要意义。劳工统计局和美联储。时间序列回归模型的估计结果证实了我们的理论论点，并对 TL 汽车承运人、托运人和其他行业利益相关者具有重要意义。