This paper investigates the presence of housing bubbles in Australia at the national, capital city, and local government area (LGA) levels. We control for housing market demand and supply fundamentals using the technique of Shi (2017), and employ the recursive evolving method proposed by Phillips et al. (2015a,b) for the detection of explosive bubbles. While the national-level analysis suggests a short-lived bubble episode (2017:Q3) over the entire sample period from 1999 to 2017, the results from the capital-city-level data reveal substantial heterogeneity across cities, with only short-lived and isolated bubbles identified for Sydney and Melbourne during the recent rapid housing price expansions from 2013 to 2017. The LGA-level analysis suggests that the bubbles in Sydney and Melbourne have low intensity.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚住房市场繁荣：基本面还是投机？*

本文从国家、首府城市和地方政府区域 (LGA) 层面调查了澳大利亚房地产泡沫的存在。我们使用 Shi (2017) 的技术控制住房市场需求和供应基本面，并采用 Phillips 等人提出的递归演化方法。(2015a,b) 用于检测爆炸性气泡。虽然国家层面的分析表明，在 1999 年至 2017 年的整个样本期间出现了短暂的泡沫事件（2017 年第三季度），但首都城市层面的数据结果揭示了城市间的巨大异质性，只有短暂的和在 2013 年至 2017 年的近期房价快速上涨期间，悉尼和墨尔本出现了孤立的泡沫。 LGA 层面的分析表明，悉尼和墨尔本的泡沫强度较低。