This paper describes an approach to making fiscal policy decisions based on probabilistic statements on the likely occurrence of events as specified in a rules‐based framework for making fiscal adjustments. The event probability forecasts are obtained from a simple time series econometric model of the key variables influencing debt dynamics (interest rates, output and debt itself). The approach is applied to data for ten developed countries for 1956–2016 and the analysis demonstrates the importance of accommodating international linkages in forecasting, noting that failure to do so would have led to excessive fiscal cutbacks and austerity in recent years.

中文翻译：

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使用经合组织国家中的事件概率预测进行财政调整

本文介绍了一种方法，该方法基于概率陈述对财务政策做出决策，该决策是在基于规则的财政调整框架中指定的。事件概率预测是从影响债务动态（利率，产出和债务本身）的关键变量的简单时间序列计量经济模型获得的。该方法适用于1956-2016年的十个发达国家的数据，分析表明了在预测中适应国际联系的重要性，并指出，如果不这样做，将会导致近年来的财政削减和紧缩政策。