In Europe, several countries have established public loan guarantee funds throughout direct/indirect loan programs to facilitate the access of SMEs and start‐ups to bank credit. This paper investigates whether start‐ups' level of access to bank loans during the early stage represents an imprinting factor with effects on the likelihood of survival once the firm reaches maturity. We rely on a firm‐level longitudinal data set of 49,111 Italian startups born from 2003 to 2005. Implementing a 2SLS regression analysis we show that the initial level of start‐up bank debt negatively influences the probability of default controlling for firm characteristics and performance. (JEL G21, M20, H32)

中文翻译：

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初始获得银行贷款是否可以预见初创企业的未来默认概率？来自意大利的证据

在欧洲，有几个国家在整个直接/间接贷款计划中建立了公共贷款担保基金，以便利中小型企业和初创企业获得银行信贷。本文研究了初创企业在早期阶段获得银行贷款的水平是否代表一个印记因素，一旦企业成熟，它就会影响生存的可能性。我们依赖于49111家从2003年至2005年出生的意大利初创公司的企业级纵向数据集。实施2SLS回归分析后，我们发现，初创银行债务的初始水平会对违约控制企业特征和绩效的可能性产生负面影响。（ JEL G21，M20，H32）