Subjective probabilities as well as risk and uncertainty preferences influence many farmers’ decisions. Few contextualized field experiments were recently conducted to elicit farmers’ risk preferences. Contextualized field experiments use nonabstract framings that are familiar to subjects. Despite adding of context can undermine internal validity, such experiments are increasingly used in applied economics. Contextualized field experiments were never used to elicit farmers’ uncertainty preferences. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. This required the development of a new approach in which uncertainty preferences were estimated while controlling for farmers’ subjective probabilities regarding future agricultural outcomes. The experiment involves Scottish farmers’ decisions to plant traditional or new potato varieties. Monetary incentives and incentive compatible elicitation techniques, such as quadratic scoring rules and certainty equivalent multiple price lists, were used. Results from the estimation of Fechner models using maximum likelihood estimation procedures show that failure to control for subjective probabilities generates an underestimation of estimated uncertainty preferences. Farmers are more averse to uncertainty than risk, and their choices are noisier under uncertainty than risk.

中文翻译：

---

使用情境化的田间实验来提高农民的主观概率，风险和不确定性偏好

主观概率以及风险和不确定性偏好会影响许多农民的决策。最近很少进行情境化的田间试验来引起农民的风险偏好。情境化的现场实验使用的是受试者熟悉的非抽象框架。尽管添加上下文会破坏内部有效性，但此类实验已在应用经济学中越来越多地使用。从未使用情境化的田间试验来引发农民的不确定性偏好。本文旨在填补文献中的空白。这要求开发一种新方法，在控制农民对未来农业成果的主观概率的同时，估计不确定性偏好。该实验涉及苏格兰农民决定种植传统或新马铃薯品种的决定。使用了货币激励和激励兼容的启发技术，例如二次得分规则和确定性等价的多个价目表。使用最大似然估计程序对Fechner模型进行估计的结果表明，无法控制主观概率会导致估计不确定性偏好的低估。农民对不确定性比风险更厌恶，在不确定性下，农民的选择比风险更嘈杂。