The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data,The Astronomical Journal

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The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data
The Astronomical Journal ( IF 5.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-22 , DOI: 10.3847/1538-3881/abc418
Steve Bryson ₁ , Michelle Kunimoto ₂ , Ravi K. Kopparapu ₃ , Jeffrey L. Coughlin _{1,

4} , William J. Borucki ₁ , David Koch ₁ , Victor Silva Aguirre ₅ , Christopher Allen ₆ , Geert Barentsen ₇ , Natalie M. Batalha ₈ , Travis Berger ₉ , Alan Boss ₁₀ , Lars A. Buchhave ₁₁ , Christopher J. Burke ₁₂ , Douglas A. Caldwell _{1,

4} , Jennifer R. Campbell ₁ , Joseph Catanzarite ₁₃ , Hema Chandrasekaran ₁₄ , William J. Chaplin _{5,

15} , Jessie L. Christiansen ₁₆ , Jrgen Christensen-Dalsgaard ₅ , David R. Ciardi ₁₆ , Bruce D. Clarke _{1,

4} , William D. Cochran ₁₇ , Jessie L. Dotson ₁ , Laurance R. Doyle ₄ , Eduardo Seperuelo Duarte _{1,

18} , Edward W. Dunham ₁₉ , Andrea K. Dupree ₂₀ , Michael Endl ₁₇ , James L. Fanson ₂₁ , Eric B. Ford _{22,

23,

24,

25} , Maura Fujieh ₁ , Thomas N. Gautier III ₂₁ , John C. Geary ₂₆ , Ronald L Gilliland ₂₇ , Forrest R. Girouard _{1,

28} , Alan Gould ₂₉ , Michael R. Haas ₁ , Christopher E. Henze ₁ , Matthew J. Holman ₂₀ , Andrew W. Howard ₃₀ , Steve B. Howell ₁ , Daniel Huber ₉ , Roger C. Hunter ₁ , Jon M. Jenkins ₁ , Hans Kjeldsen ₅ , Jeffery Kolodziejczak ₃₁ , Kipp Larson ₃₂ , David W. Latham ₂₀ , Jie Li _{1,

4} , Savita Mathur _{33,

34} , Sren Meibom ₂₀ , Chris Middour ₃₅ , Robert L. Morris _{1,

4} , Timothy D. Morton ₃₆ , Fergal Mullally _{1,

4} , Susan E. Mullally ₂₇ , David Pletcher ₁ , Andrej Prsa ₃₇ , Samuel N. Quinn ₂₀ , Elisa V. Quintana ₃ , Darin Ragozzine ₃₈ , Solange V. Ramirez ₃₉ , Dwight T. Sanderfer _{1,

40} , Dimitar Sasselov ₂₀ , Shawn E. Seader ₄₁ , Megan Shabram ₁ , Avi Shporer ₁₂ , Jeffrey C. Smith _{1,

4} , Jason H. Steffen ₄₂ , Martin Still ₄₃ , Guillermo Torres ₂₀ , John Troeltzsch ₃₂ , Joseph D. Twicken _{1,

4} , Akm Kamal Uddin ₃₅ , Jeffrey E. Van Cleve ₃₂ , Janice Voss ₁ , Lauren M. Weiss ₉ , William F. Welsh ₄₄ , Bill Wohler _{1,

4} , Khadeejah A Zamudio _{1,

45}

Affiliation

NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1, Canada
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
SETI Institute, 189 Bernardo Ave, Suite 200, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
Stellar Astrophysics Centre (SAC), Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Orbital Sciences Corporation, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, 625 2nd Street, Suite 209, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA
University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawai‘i, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Earth & Planets Laboratory, Carnegie Institution for Science, USA
DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Elektrovej 328, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Department of Physics and Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Cross-Entropy Consulting, USA
Computational Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, L-261, Livermore, CA-94550, USA
School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
Caltech/IPAC NASA Exoplanet Science Institute, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
McDonald Observatory and Center for Planetary Systems Habitability, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712, USA
Instituto Federal de Educao Cincia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilpolis, RJ, Brasil
Lowell Observatory, 1400 West Mars Hill Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
Center for Astrophysics ∣ Harvard & Smithsonian, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, USA
Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, 525 Davey Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Center for Exoplanets & Habitable Worlds, 525 Davey Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Center for Astrostatistics, 525 Davey Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Institute for Computational & Data Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, USA
Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
Orbital Sciences Corporation, 2401 East El Segundo Boulevard, Suite 200, El Segundo, CA 90245, USA
Lawrence Hall of Science, University of California Berkeley, USA
Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, USA
Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corporation, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Instituto de Astrofsica de Canarias, E-38200, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
Universidad de La Laguna, Dpto. de Astrofsica, E-38205, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
Millennium Engineering & Integration Services, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0484, USA
Villanova University, Department of Astrophysics and Planetary Science, 800 Lancaster Avenue, Villanova PA 19085, USA
Brigham Young University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, N283 ESC, Provo, UT 84602, USA
Carnegie Observatories, USA
Jacobs Engineering, USA
Rincon Research Corporation, 101 North Wilmot Road, Tucson, AZ 85711, USA
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA
Division of Astronomical Sciences, National Science Foundation, 2415 Eisenhower Avenue, Alexandria, VA 22314, USA
Department of Astronomy, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-1221 USA
KBRwyle, Houston, TX, USA

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37^(+0.48)_(−0.21) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60^(+0.90)_(−0.36) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58^(+0.73)_(−0.33) and 0.88^(+1.28)_(−0.51) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

中文翻译：

来自开普勒数据的类太阳恒星周围岩石宜居带行星的出现

我们根据开普勒 DR25 行星候选目录和基于盖亚的恒星属性，展示了主序矮星宜居带 (HZ) 中岩石行星的出现率。我们根据与恒星相关的星群通量提供了第一个分析，这使我们能够跟踪 HZ 行星。我们将 η⊕ 定义为半径在 0.5 和 1.5 R⊕ 之间的行星的 HZ 出现率⊕，有效温度在 4800 K 和 6300 K 之间的轨道恒星。我们发现保守 HZ 的 η⊕ 介于 0.37^(+0.48)_(− 0.21)（误差反映 68% 的可信区间）和每颗恒星 0.60^(+0.90)_(-0.36) 颗行星，而乐观的 HZ 发生在 0.58^(+0.73)_(-0.33) 和 0.88^(+1.28) 之间)_(−0.51) 每颗恒星的行星。这些界限反映了关于在 DR25 完整性数据可用的轨道周期之外的完整性外推的两个极端假设。较大的不确定性是由于检测到的小 HZ 行星数量很少。我们使用泊松似然贝叶斯分析和近似贝叶斯计算发现相似的发生率。我们的结果已针对目录的完整性和可靠性进行了修正。完整性和行星出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还介绍了各种恒星种群和行星大小范围的出现率。我们以 95% 的置信度估计，平均而言，G 和 K 矮星周围最近的 HZ 行星距离太阳约 6 pc，而 G 和 K 矮星周围的岩石行星在距离太阳 10 pc 的范围内大约有 4 HZ 岩石行星。较大的不确定性是由于检测到的小 HZ 行星数量很少。我们使用泊松似然贝叶斯分析和近似贝叶斯计算发现相似的发生率。我们的结果已针对目录的完整性和可靠性进行了修正。完整性和行星出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还介绍了各种恒星种群和行星大小范围的出现率。我们以 95% 的置信度估计，平均而言，G 和 K 矮星周围最近的 HZ 行星距离太阳约 6 pc，而 G 和 K 矮星周围的岩石行星在距离太阳 10 pc 的范围内大约有 4 HZ 岩石行星。较大的不确定性是由于检测到的小 HZ 行星数量很少。我们使用泊松似然贝叶斯分析和近似贝叶斯计算发现相似的发生率。我们的结果已针对目录的完整性和可靠性进行了修正。完整性和行星出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还介绍了各种恒星种群和行星大小范围的出现率。我们以 95% 的置信度估计，平均而言，G 和 K 矮星周围最近的 HZ 行星距离太阳约 6 pc，而 G 和 K 矮星周围的岩石行星在距离太阳 10 pc 的范围内约有 4 HZ。我们的结果已针对目录的完整性和可靠性进行了修正。完整性和行星出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还介绍了各种恒星族群和行星大小范围的出现率。我们以 95% 的置信度估计，平均而言，G 和 K 矮星周围最近的 HZ 行星距离太阳约 6 pc，而 G 和 K 矮星周围的岩石行星在距离太阳 10 pc 的范围内大约有 4 HZ 岩石行星。我们的结果已针对目录完整性和可靠性进行了修正。完整性和行星出现率都取决于恒星的有效温度。我们还介绍了各种恒星种群和行星大小范围的出现率。我们以 95% 的置信度估计，平均而言，G 和 K 矮星周围最近的 HZ 行星距离太阳约 6 pc，而 G 和 K 矮星周围的岩石行星在距离太阳 10 pc 的范围内大约有 4 HZ 岩石行星。

更新日期：2020-12-22

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