In this article, I build on the work of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003, American Economic Review 93: 113–132) and Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010, Journal of the American Statistical Association 105: 493–505), extending the synthetic control method for program evaluation—implemented in Stata via the community-contributed command synth—to the case of a nonparametric identification of the synthetic (or counterfactual) time pattern of a treated unit (a country, a region, a city, etc.) subject to a specific intervention in a given time. After theoretical description of the model, I present npsynth, the command I developed for estimating the nonparametric synthetic control method proposed in this article. Using both simulated and real data, I set out a comparison of the performance of the parametric and nonparametric methods and widely discuss the results.

在本文中，我以Abadie和Gardeazabal（2003年，《美国经济评论》 93：113-132）以及Abadie，Diamond和Hainmueller（2010，《美国统计协会杂志》 105：493-505）的工作为基础，扩展了用于程序评估的综合控制方法（通过社区贡献的命令合成器在Stata中实施），用于非参数识别被处理单位（国家，地区，城市等）的综合（或反事实）时间模式。 ）在给定时间内受到特定干预。在对模型进行理论描述之后，我介绍了npsynth，这是我为估算本文提出的非参数综合控制方法而开发的命令。我同时使用模拟数据和实际数据，对参数方法和非参数方法的性能进行了比较，并广泛讨论了结果。